New in V4

Futures

Make playoffs, last place and champion, from 20,000 simulated rest-of-seasons.

Parlays

Two to four legs, priced from the simulations where every leg wins, so correlated legs are priced correctly.

Cash out

Once the odds update, an open bet can be cashed out for 95% of its fair value.

More sources

Eight projection sources, each verified every week.

The Model™ V4

  1. Data science modeling

    Projections come from eight sources. Each one is checked against Sleeper, corrected for its past bias at each position, and weighted by how accurate it has been.

  2. Player distributions

    Each player gets a right-skewed distribution around their projection, wider where the sources disagree, with a fitted probability of a near-zero game. Teammates' scores are correlated.

    A WR projected for 14 points under V4. Dud probability: 8%.

  3. Simulation

    Every starting lineup is simulated 50,000 times. A market's odds are the share of simulations in which it wins.

Simulations to odds

Probability
64%
Odds
−178
$100 returns
$156.18

Rules

  • Odds update midweek and after Thursday's game. Betting pauses at each kickoff and locks at Sunday's first kickoff.
  • Bets can be cancelled for a full refund until the odds update.
  • Bets settle on Sleeper's final scores. A result exactly on the line is a push.
  • Everyone starts with $5,000 in fake money. Prizes are real: $10 for the week's top profit, $100 for the season's.

Model performance

The base distributions were backtested on 2025 weeks 10–16. Share of player scores inside their 80% prediction interval:

Team scores fell inside their 80% interval 79% of the time, with a mean absolute error of 20 points. Moneyline Brier score: 0.236 (V3: 0.237). The source-disagreement term and the futures' discount of distant weeks were added in 2026 week 4 and are graded as the season plays out.